Advances in machine learning and the increasing availability of high-dimensional data have led to the proliferation of social science research that uses the predictions of machine learning models as proxies for measures of human activity or environmental outcomes. However, prediction errors from machine learning models can lead to bias in the estimates of regression coefficients. In this paper, we show how this bias can arise, propose a test for detecting bias, and demonstrate the use of an adversarial machine learning algorithm in order to de-bias predictions. These methods are applicable to any setting where machine-learned predictions are the dependent variable in a regression. We conduct simulations and empirical exercises using ground truth and satellite data on forest cover in Africa. Using the predictions from a naive machine learning model leads to biased parameter estimates, while the predictions from the adversarial model recover the true coefficients.

Monitoring changes in tree cover for rapid assessment of deforestation is considered the critical component of any climate mitigation policy for reducing carbon. Here, we map tropical tree cover and deforestation between 2015 and 2022 using 5 m spatial resolution Planet NICFI satellite images over the state of Mato Grosso (MT) in Brazil and a U-net deep learning model. The tree cover for the state was 556510.8 km$^2$ in 2015 (58.1 % of the MT State) and was reduced to 141598.5 km$^2$ (14.8 % of total area) at the end of 2021. After reaching a minimum deforested area in December 2016 with 6632.05 km$^2$, the bi-annual deforestation area only showed a slight increase between December 2016 and December 2019. A year after, the areas of deforestation almost doubled from 9944.5 km$^2$ in December 2019 to 19817.8 km$^2$ in December 2021. The high-resolution data product showed relatively consistent agreement with the official deforestation map from Brazil (67.2%) but deviated significantly from year of forest cover loss estimates from the Global Forest change (GFC) product, mainly due to large area of fire degradation observed in the GFC data. High-resolution imagery from Planet NICFI associated with deep learning technics can significantly improve mapping deforestation extent in tropics.

This summer, the whole world watched in horror as thousands of fires, again this year, ravaged the Amazon rainforest. Yet the forests are specific ecosystems: they are carbon sinks, meaning they stock carbon dioxide outside of the atmosphere; their destruction is contributing to climate change. To fight this phenomenon and protect the environment, governments, associations, scientists and local communities are relying more and more on technological advances. More specifically, here's how satellite imagery, artificial intelligence, and drones are being deployed in environmental battles. Combined with other sources of information (data collected in the field, aerial photography, etc.), satellite imagery makes it possible to analyse the evolution of forests, to detect changes that have arisen in a particular area and over a given period of time, and, ultimately, to determine the rate of global deforestation.

We propose a method for causal inference using satellite image time series, in order to determine the treatment effects of interventions which impact climate change, such as deforestation. Simply put, the aim is to quantify the 'before versus after' effect of climate related human driven interventions, such as urbanization; as well as natural disasters, such as hurricanes and forest fires. As a concrete example, we focus on quantifying forest tree cover change/ deforestation due to human led causes. The proposed method involves the following steps. First, we uae computer vision and machine learning/deep learning techniques to detect and quantify forest tree coverage levels over time, at every time epoch. We then look at this time series to identify changepoints. Next, we estimate the expected (forest tree cover) values using a Bayesian structural causal model and projecting/forecasting the counterfactual. This is compared to the values actually observed post intervention, and the difference in the two values gives us the effect of the intervention (as compared to the non intervention scenario, i.e. what would have possibly happened without the intervention). As a specific use case, we analyze deforestation levels before and after the hyperinflation event (intervention) in Brazil (which ended in 1993-94), for the Amazon rainforest region, around Rondonia, Brazil. For this deforestation use case, using our causal inference framework can help causally attribute change/reduction in forest tree cover and increasing deforestation rates due to human activities at various points in time.